EdTech Insight – The myth of an enduring index premium

by | May 31, 2024 | McKinsey, News & Insights

Executive Summary and Main Points

Recent analyses of total shareholder returns (TSR) reveal that while inclusion in or exclusion from a major stock index such as the S&P 500 does momentarily affect a company’s stock price, this effect is short-lived. The market inevitably corrects to reflect the company’s intrinsic value based on growth, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), and sectoral trends. It is clear that index inclusion is a reaction to a company’s performance rather than a driver. This insight prompts a reconsideration of strategic decisions in businesses with an emphasis on core fundamentals over transient index-related strategies.

Potential Impact in the Education Sector

For Further Education, Higher Education, and providers of Micro-credentials, the emphasis on intrinsic value over index inclusion underlines the importance of concentrating on core educational outcomes and long-term value creation. This can translate to strategic partnerships that focus on improving educational quality and student success measures, rather than purely scale or visibility enhancements. Digitalization efforts may be evaluated on their ability to sustainably enhance learning experiences and outcomes, independent of short-term trends or indices.

Potential Applicability in the Education Sector

Within the global education sector, AI and digital tools can be leveraged to optimize learning environments and administrative processes, enabling institutions to focus on substantive educational improvements. By collecting and analyzing data on student performance and engagement, institutions can adapt and personalize educational content, a practice divorced from the ephemeral valuations that might be seen in financial indices but centered on the intrinsic value of educational offerings.

Criticism and Potential Shortfalls

Criticism of focusing too closely on intrinsic value might point out that market perceptions, including index inclusions, can have material impacts on stakeholder behaviors and decision-making. In education, ethical and cultural implications also emerge when employing AI and digital tools, particularly around privacy, data security, and potential biases in algorithmically mediated educational content. Comparative international case studies reveal variances in how education systems value and integrate technology, suggesting a need for context-sensitive strategies.

Actionable Recommendations

To leverage these insights, international education leadership should prioritize investments in educational technology that align with their core mission and demonstrably enhance educational outcomes. This may include developing AI-driven analytics to inform curriculum development, personalized learning pathways, and student support services. Concurrently, it is crucial to maintain transparent communication strategies that align stakeholder expectations with the strategic focus on substantial educational value over index-like visibility or short-term performance metrics.

Source article: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-myth-of-an-enduring-index-premium